In the current climate of June 2026, the energy sector is grappling with unprecedented disruption. The ongoing Iran-US conflict has fundamentally rewritten the rules of global fuel procurement. With vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsing by over 90% and Jet Fuel A1 prices more than doubling since the start of the year, the margin for error has vanished. For fuel buyers, the stakes have shifted from optimizing margins to ensuring basic survival.
At Van Dyke Energy, we operate at the epicenter of these shifts. We see first-hand how institutional buyers and airlines are struggling to navigate a market where war-risk insurance premiums have surged by 1,000%. To maintain energy resilience, buyers must abandon outdated procurement habits and adopt a strategy that accounts for extreme volatility and logistical bottlenecks.
Here are the seven most critical mistakes fuel buyers are making in today’s volatile market: and how to fix them using a sophisticated EN590 and Jet Fuel A1 strategy.
1. Over-Reliance on the Spot Market During Extreme Backwardation
In today’s market, the forward curve is in heavy backwardation: meaning prompt barrels are significantly more expensive than future contracts. Many buyers wait for "price dips" that never materialize, only to be forced into the spot market when inventories hit critical lows.
Relying on spot procurement during a conflict that restricts 20% of the world’s oil supply is a recipe for disaster. When the ICE Low-Sulfur Gasoil (LSGO) benchmark spikes on the back of fresh headlines from the Persian Gulf, spot buyers are the first to be squeezed.
The Fix: Transition toward long-term offtake agreements. By securing a committed volume of EN590 diesel or Jet Fuel A1, you bypass the panic-buying phase. Even if the price is floating, you guarantee allocation, which is the most valuable currency in 2026.
2. Ignoring the "Real" Cost of CIF Deliveries
Many buyers look at CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) quotes and assume the "I" covers everything. However, in the wake of Iranian military activity in key shipping lanes, standard maritime insurance no longer suffices. We are seeing additional war-risk premiums rising to 5% of hull value.
If your supplier hasn't accounted for these surcharges or the cost of rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, your cargo will be stalled at the port of origin or held hostage by mid-transit price renegotiations.
The Fix: Vet your supplier's logistics expertise. Van Dyke Energy specializes in navigating these logistical minefields. Ensure your contracts explicitly define who bears the brunt of sudden insurance hikes and that your supplier has the global network to utilize alternative hubs like Rotterdam, Singapore, or Fujairah.
3. Compromising on Compliance for "Emergency" Supply
When physical supply tightens, "gray market" fuel often appears. We have seen an influx of sanctioned products being rebranded or blended to appear compliant. For a professional fuel buyer, the risk of a compliance breach is far more expensive than a high fuel price. Getting caught with sanctioned Iranian or Russian molecules can result in massive fines and permanent de-platforming by top-tier banks.
The Fix: Never skip the SGS inspection or the Proof of Product (POP) verification. At Van Dyke Energy, we emphasize that what every fuel buyer should know about POP is that it is your only defense against fraud. We work exclusively with verified sellers and certified refineries to ensure every drop of EN590 and D6 is fully compliant with international law.
4. Betting on a Single Trade Route
Mistake number four is a failure of geographical diversification. If your entire supply chain for Jet Fuel A1 or EN590 relies on the Strait of Hormuz, you are currently at a 90% deficit. With the 2026 Iran war creating "acute vulnerability" for airport fuel supplies, many buyers are finding their domestic pipelines dry.
The Fix: Build a diversified portfolio. You should be sourcing from multiple regions simultaneously. Use your EN590 diesel procurement strategy to include FOB options in non-affected zones. Van Dyke Energy maintains a vetted network of mandates and refineries across multiple continents, allowing us to pivot supply routes as regional instabilities shift.
5. Falling for "Pop-Up" Intermediaries
High volatility attracts opportunistic brokers who claim to have "allocation" but have no history, no bankability, and no direct refinery relationships. These intermediaries often disappear the moment a transaction becomes complex or a price move goes against them. In June 2026, the market has no patience for amateurs.
The Fix: Only engage with firms that have a proven track record and transparency. Check for why top 50 global banks matter in fuel trade and ensure your partner can handle SBLCs (Standby Letters of Credit) and other financial instruments required for large-scale energy deals. Professionalism is not just a tone; it is a financial requirement.
6. Misjudging the Spread Between Crude and Refined Products
A common error is tracking only the price of Brent or WTI. In the current conflict, middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel) are tighter than crude. The "crack spread": the difference between the price of crude and the refined product: is at record highs because refining capacity is constrained and shipping risk is concentrated on tankers carrying finished goods.
If you are budgeting based on crude oil movements, you will be caught off guard when EN590 prices jump 15% while crude only moves 3%.
The Fix: Monitor the ICE LSGO and Platts benchmarks for refined products specifically. Forward-looking buyers must account for the fact that refining margins will remain elevated as long as Asian export bans and Middle Eastern shipping restrictions persist.
7. Failing to Secure "First-Right" Allocation
In a deficit market, refineries prioritize long-standing partners and those with "first-right" offtake agreements. Many buyers assume that if they have the money, they can always find the fuel. In 2026, this is false. We are seeing fuel rationing at major European airports and diesel export bans from former major suppliers.
The Fix: You must position yourself as a verified buyer. Use a formal Fuel Buyer RFP process to establish your credentials early. At Van Dyke Energy, we help our clients move from being "spot hunters" to "institutional partners," ensuring they are at the front of the line when a refinery releases its monthly allocation.
The Path Forward: Stability in an Unstable World
The 2026 Iran war has proven that the "just-in-time" supply chain for energy is broken. Reliability is no longer a commodity; it is a strategic asset. To survive this volatility, you need more than just a supplier; you need a partner with deep industry expertise, a vetted global network, and a commitment to transparent deal execution.
Whether you are an airline procurement team needing Jet Fuel A1 or a distributor requiring EN590 diesel, the strategy remains the same: Prioritize compliance, diversify your routes, and lock in your supply now.
The market will not wait for the conflict to end. Neither should you.
Mark Van Dyke
Sales Director, VanDykeEnergy.com
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